The Numbers Don't Lie: American Idol 2021 (Top 5 prediction)

From the archive. Originally published on migmol.com on 2021-05-08, recovered and republished here in 2026 at its original address. Unedited except for formatting.

Part of a three-post series testing whether public social metrics could predict a competition result, published with a mid-season accuracy update. The method behind it later became Konteksto.

Well, we nailed the top 6 prediction so we’re going to make a top 5 prediction.

As expected, now is the part of the season where there is a surplus of male contestants. The WGWG trend is in full effect, but as we’ve discussed before, we won’t have a WGWG winner this year.

Last year’s first runner-up, lone Asian contestant, Arthur Gunn made it to the top 7 via wildcard vote. His entry into the competition spells trouble for the rest of the WGWG. Their acts are now too common and they can split the votes among themselves. Arthur Gunn identifies as a country artist btw.

We don’t have many metrics, so we work with what we have, and there’s something interesting in the YT views as of May 7.

[image: chart of contestant YouTube views as of May 7]

First, the eliminated 3 contestants did not have the least views. Second, given the three WGWG it seems like Hunter was the most popular last week. Third, Willie had the third most views and that’s interesting. Could this be a sign that there is a chink in Willie’s invulnerability?

If we say that the country votes got split up between multiple contestants, what happens to the R&B/Soul vote now that Deshawn and Alyssa (though she identifies as pop) are now gone?

Grace picked a Frozen song which was right up her alley. And anything Frozen will get lots of views. So there may be a discrepancy there as to why she’s at the top, but maybe it’s also a turning of the tide for her.

Arthur did pick another very popular Disney song in Coco’s Remember me, but the song was almost unrecognizable. That’s what he does. That’s the Alejandro magic (who didn’t win but was well-loved). He’s really going to shake up this competition. To be honest, I thought he deserved to win last year over Just Sam. So historically, people have rallied for him. America liked him and apparently, they still do.

This is all shooting from the hip, but the top 5 are going to be: Arthur, because he’s proven America likes him; Willie for the same reason; Casey because she’s just so unique and cuts across multiple genres; Hunter because he’s the most ‘broad’ WGWG meaning he could be a folk artist, a pop artist, a country artist; and Grace because it is unlikely we’ll have only 1 girl left in the top 5. So this means, Caleb and Chayce are going home this weekend.

Is Willie still a shoe in to win the whole thing? I’m not so sure all of a sudden.

Dim the lights!