Can YouTube views & Instagram Followers Predict the American Idol Winner? (mid-season update)

From the archive. Originally published on migmol.com on 2021-04-24, recovered and republished here in 2026 at its original address. Unedited except for formatting.

Part of a three-post series testing whether public social metrics could predict a competition result, published with a mid-season accuracy update. The method behind it later became Konteksto.

We are down to the top 9 (which will become top 10 this weekend). A lot of my favorites have been eliminated, but let’s see how the social media numbers stack up so far.

I got the top 16 contestants for the metrics above and checked how many of them have made it to the top 9. So far, IG followers seem to be the best predictor of progress. If we follow this logic, Willie Spence is the sure winner. He has 370% more followers (299k more) vs the next contestant.

However, the contestants with the 2nd most, 3rd most, and 5th most IG followers have all been eliminated as of the top 9. So maybe, this isn’t the best metric. But still, everyone in the top 9 was within the top third of contestants with the most IG numbers.

If we look at the contestants with the top 8 YT videos as of the duets, only 5 of the 8 are left. Ava (2nd most), Sophia (4th most), and Madison (6th most) have all been eliminated. The trend is the same for the people with the top 8 audition videos with Anilee, Mary Jo, and Alana dropping out.

I am realizing that this exercise is a bit hard because we don’t have enough numbers. So the results can fluctuate. So just for fun, let’s look at the other numbers as well.

[image: chart of contestant progress by sex]

First of all, this is sex (not gender) which makes it a little black & white. For this one we have that extra level of data from all the previous American Idol seasons. Historically, guys do better on the show. So far, the trend seems to be moving in that direction.

[image: chart of contestant progress by genre]

And to complete that “WGWG” theory, I also tried to see the progression of the genres this season.

When I shared my first post on Reddit, user jillanco pointed out another trend among past winners: BDND (black divas never die). So I updated my earlier list of winners and sorted them for WGWG, BDND, and the obvious only stereotype left: White Women. So far no Hispanic or Asian winners, male or female. Arthur Gunn who came in 2nd last year and he was not white. So I guess the categories make sense. (And yes, I am fully aware these are crude generalizations but let’s just have fun with this).

What we have learned so far:

• Audition videos can be a gauge of success but we have to consider how the story was packaged. Talent isn’t the only thing featured in the audition videos.
• IG followers can be a gauge for general popularity, but how America votes per week doesn’t directly follow IG popularity. Social media platforms after all are global metrics, but the votes are America-based.
• There does seem to be a trend towards guys. This will be an interesting metric to look at moving forward as the contenders get narrowed down further.
• For genre, at least for this season, soul/r&b and pop seem to be trending better. This is a little interesting, but numbers do not say anything clearly. Might get better as we progress.

Given everything so far, especially with Eva dropping OUT, the top 3 should be (in order): Willie, Grace, and Casey.

Willie has the most IG followers by a mile. He also had the most views for the duets round, which was the first performance round (video views no longer skewed by ‘story’). Grace had the most views from the auditions. And Casey has the most consistent top views compared to the other remaining contestants so she rounds up the top 3.

However, being an AI stan for a while now, I believe the genre and gender metrics will come into play as America votes.

I wouldN’T be surprised if other ‘favorites’ get booted out in favor of the obvious WGWG top 3: Caleb, Chayce, and Hunter (in order).

Although the genre trend shows country & folk are trending down and rock is in the middle, I think the trend was skewed by the elimination of Hannah and Cecil Ray. The 3 judges represent pop, r&b, and country, probably based on the historical 3 most popular genres, so country votes count for a lot. And by narrowing down the choices for a ‘country contestant’ all those votes go to Caleb. Chayce did join the ‘country’ competition, but based on the performances he’s giving more of a rock vibe. Caleb is clearly country. And speaking of splitting votes in the genre, perhaps the R&B/soul vote will get split between the remaining contestants which could explain why they could drop out.

So top 6 could be a combination of these 2 groups, but if the historical trend stays. I would bet the top 3 would be: Willie, Caleb, and Chayce. All male. Follows the WGWG historical trend and the recent BDND trend. Among the remaining contestant, my heart is saying that Casey should win, but this post isn’t about who I want to win but what the data/trend is showing.

We shall see. DIM THE LIGHTS!